The View From Wisconsin

Just a random set of rants from a Sports Fan from Wisconsin.

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Something to Consider

First of all, let me state the obvious: the Milwaukee Brewers are off to their best start ever in franchise history. This is only the fifth time since 1970 that the Brewers have won 20 games by this point of the season, and it is far and away their best record over the first 34 games of the season.

There is something scary about this, though: in each of the four other times the Crew has posted 20 wins through 34 games, they have slumped over the remainder of the schedule every time, save for once (1979). The worst slump was when they first reached the 20-win mark in 34 games, in 1975. The team won only 48 more games all season, finishing at 68-94. A similar slump would put the Brewers at 87-75 in October... possibly in contention for the wild card, but not for certain.

The Brewers haven't generally done well after the 34-game mark, dropping in their winning percentage by an average of .009. Since joining the NL in 1998, the average drop has been .017. Even with this, though, the Brewers are projected to have a final record of 112 to 113 wins.

Ponder that for a moment...