The View From Wisconsin

With his 3,000th career hit, Rafael Palmeiro has been mentioned as having "clinched his HOF credentials."

But has he? Using the Ken Keltner list, I present a bit of an overview of Raf's career:

THE NUMBERS
HOF Eligibility: If he retires at the end of 2005, he'll be eligible for the 2011 vote (induction in 2012).

All-Star Games: Four (1988, 1991, 1998, 1999);

Awards: 1999 TSN Player of the Year (voted for by players); three gold gloves (1997-99); two Silver Sluggers (1998-99). Finished in the top 10 in MVP balloting three times (1993, 8th; 1996, 6th; and 1999, 5th).

Black Ink: 8 (avg HOF: 27)

Gray Ink: 183 (avg HOF: 144)

HOFS: 57.0 (avg HOF: 50)

HOFCM: 156.0 (likely HOF: 100; certain: 130)

Most Similar Player: Frank Robinson (880), HOF'er

HOF in top 10 most similar: Eight – top five most similar are all HOF'ers (Robinson; Eddie Murray, 876; Reggie Jackson, 842; Mel Ott, 828; Dave Winfield, 820). Rafael is also similar to HOF'ers Al Kaline (805), Willie McCovey (768) and Billy Williams (756).

Post-season record: No World Series appearances. 5 post-season series played (teams are 2-3 in those series); 22 gp, 20-82 (.244), 4 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 6 BB, 23 K. His last post-season appearance was in 1999, when the Yankees swept the Rangers in the ALDS (three singles in 11 AB over the three games).

THE KELTNER LIST

1. He has played in an era where most people have argued that guys like Sosa, Rodriguez, Jeter and Bonds were the best. Raffi was tangential to those discussions.

2. Though Raffi has bounced between the Rangers and Orioles in his tenure, it's likely that he was one of the key members of his team during that time. In his three years with the Cubs at the beginning of his career, he was far from the best.

3. Here's another problem area: he happened to be in MLB at the time when Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas were playing; he also got edged out in Chicago because of Mark Grace. However, over the length of his career, he was probably the best; Thomas had the problem of having injuries slow him down, where Raffi hasn't.

4. There were the three that we've seen from the post-season results. It's likely that the Rangers might not have won the AL West in 1999 without Palmeiro (the team was about seven games over its Pythagorean record that year). His teams never made it to the WS, though – that can be blamed on the Yankees juggernaut and the outstanding 1997 Indians team. The Orioles are in contention this year; if he finally makes it to the World Series, he might have a crowning case for his HOF candidacy.

5. Raffi has created 562 runs since turning 35 in 2000. That is about 29% of his career total. His HR totals have declined each of the last three years (43, 38, 23), but that is more attributable to the decline of hitting over the last three seasons (more on that later).

6. Right now, the very best baseball player who is not in the Hall of Fame is still trying to shake off knee injuries in San Francisco. Raffi isn't him.

7. Once again: each of Raffi's top five most comparable players are in the HOF. What's strange is, you can find similarities to each of those five and Palmeiro – especially in 1B Eddie Murray. Murray's career is similar to Raffi's in many ways, except for the post-season success early on with Murray.

8. Raffi's HOFS are listed at 57.0 by baseballreference.com; his CM totals are at 156.0. Most of the metrics that measure statistical success suggest Palmeiro has HOF credentials – though he is weak in the Black Ink test However, the Black Ink test isn't as reliable for gray-area HOF'ers, because there have been at least 28 teams in the majors during most of his career

9. Rafael was considered to be a good fielder, and gets points for never going on the D/L during his career (in fact, he hasn't played in fewer than 110 games in his career since 1987, when the Cubs weren't sure if he was their 1B of the future). The only reasons why he hasn't played in 154 or more games every season since he switched to the AL in 1989 was the strike in 1994. As to the hitting: his first three seasons in a notorious hitter's part weren't outstanding; his next five seasons playing in a stadium that… well, there's a reason why Nolan Ryan liked pitching at Arlington Stadium. He then switched to Oriole Park in 1994 – a park slightly favorable to hitters – and his career took off. Since coming back to Texas, he's played in a bandbox at Ameriquest Field. Oh, and there's that little accusation about 'roids.

10. The list of 1B with better HOFS scores is short: in fact, it consists of only one player, and that is Jeff Bagwell. Raffi's career stats don't have Bagwell's injuries attached; the argument would be that the two are comparable – and Palmeiro's might be slightly better.

11. Rafael never won the MVP award during his tenure in the AL. He was in the top 20 in voting 10 times, and has an Awards Share total of 1.20 – same as Wade Boggs, Derek Jeter, and Bruce Sutter. He deserved the HOF vote in 1999, but because of his teammate, Pudge Rodriguez, he didn't win it. The "Player of the Year" award indicates that his fellow players realized he was a key player – but that's not much to sportswriters, who vote in the BBWAA balloting.

12. That Rafael has only been to four All-Star games indicates the glut of candidates at his position (1B). Frank Thomas was the premier 1B in the AL when Raf first came to the league; since 1999, the title has been bandied about (Paul Konerko, for example). Having gone to only four All-Star games won't make-or-break his candidacy.

13. Palmeiro was probably the best player on the Rangers in 1999, and the only reason why they didn't win the AL pennant was because of the depth of the Yankees as a team. I'd say the answer to this question is yes.

14. Rafael Palmeiro was asked to come to Washington for the Senate hearings on performance enhancing drugs in sport. There's a belief that Rafael may have used steroids to improve his performance on the field; however, there's no proof that he actually did it. There's a real gray area right now for the writers and fans about players from this era, as to whether or not the statistics are "legit" because of the use of performance-enhancing drugs.

15. As far as we know, Rafael has been an outstanding citizen. There's the issue of his spokesmanship for Viagra (the male erectile dysfunction drug), and that he was called to testify to congress about steroids.

Is he a Hall of Famer? If the writers don't select Mark McGwire when he comes up for the ballot in a few years, we'll know. Under all the circumstances, assuming that the 'roid issue is laid to rest, Rafael appears to be a good HOF candidate. The Hall would definitely not be "sullied" with his membership.