The View From Wisconsin

The Standardized Runs totals are now in for 2006 for MLB. The SR formula, for those of you just joining us, is a slightly easier-to-understand version of the Runs Created formula, with an adjustment similar to Batting Runs so that the SR total for a league for a given year is always equal to the actual number of runs scored by league teams.

The SR formula is, simply: OBP * [TB + .55 (SB – CS)] / League Factor; where the league factor is: League OBP * [League TB + .55 (League SB – League CS)] / League RS. The AL had a League Factor of 1.046, while the NL had a factor of 1.042.

The second number in the stat lines for the players is Standard Fibonacci Wins. Using the Jamesian method of determining Offensive Winning Percentage (Simplified runs per 27 outs squared, divided by the sum of simplified runs per 27 outs squared plus offensive context squared), you then determine offensive wins and losses (using outs/27 as the assigned number of games), and plug these three things into his Fibonacci Wins formula (wins times winning percentage, plus wins minus losses).

On to the All-Star teams:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

• 1B – Justin Morneau, Minnesota (118.7 SR, 15.6 SFIB). He's my outside shot at MVP for the AL.
• 2B – Robinson Cano, NY Yankees (88.8, 8.8). Good year in a good lineup.
• 3B – Alex Rodriguez, NY Yankees (114.2, 11.4). Why are they booing him, again?
• SS – Derek Jeter, NY Yankees (126.2, 13.8). Oh, now I remember.
• OF – Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (128.1, 13.9). Surprisingly good season.
• OF – Vlad Guerrero, LA Angels (124.3, 16.4). Quietly had a huge year. Too bad it wasn't enough to get him to October.
• OF – Jermaine Dye, White Sox (124.0, 14.6). No, the World Series wasn't a fluke.
• C – Joe Mauer, Minnesota (109.5, 14.6). Another cog in a very strong Twins team.
• DH – David Ortiz, Boston (140.2, 17.1). Without Big Papi, the BoSox are in the basement of the AL East.
• PI – Josh Beckett, Boston (2.5, 0.2). Okay, okay, a bit of a joke, but not bad for only seven plate appearances.

National League:

• 1B – Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (156.2, 18.7). Pujols had a better SFIG (19.1), but is second in SR (149.5) because of Ryan's 58 dingers.
• 2B – Chase Utley, Philadelphia (128.4, 13.7). Boy, can you imagine what would have happened if Philly would have actually had a pitching staff?
• 3B – Miguel Cabrera, Florida (135.8, 17.9). He should get a nod or two for MVP votes, but not with Howard's year.
• SS – Jose Reyes, NY Mets (115.8, 12.6). The MVP of the Mets. Any other year, he gets MVP nods.
• OF – Matt Holliday, Colorado (132.1, 15.9). Good player, crappy team.
• OF – Alfonso Soriano, Washington (126.5, 13.7). See above.
• OF – Jason Bay, Pittsburgh (117.1, 15.2). See above.
• C – Brian McCann, Atlanta (94.7, 11.1). Good, quality backstop... on a crappy team.
• PI – Dontrelle Willis, Florida (5.1, -1.2). This falls under the "you gotta do it yourself" category.

2006 CY YOUNG POINTS LEAGUE LEADERS

Cy Young Points are a method used by me (see elsewhere in this blog for the formula details) of determining what pitchers are the most deserving of consideration for the Cy Young Award.

AMERICAN LEAGUE TOP THREE:

SP: Johan Santana, Minnesota (35.2), Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees (27.8), and Roy Halladay, Toronto (26.4).

RP: Joe Nathan, Minnesota (35.8), Justin Papelbon, Boston (27.4) and J.J. Putz, Seattle (17.4).

NATIONAL LEAGUE TOP THREE:

SP: Brandon Webb, Arizona (20.5), Carlos Zambrano, Cubs (19.7), and Chris Carpenter, Saint Louis (18.2).

RP: Takashi Saito, Los Angeles (16.8), Cla Meredith, San Diego (13.9), and Billy Wagner, Mets (13.3).

Labels: Baseball sabermetrics standardized estimated runs formula